Trading Journal
“First learn to trade then the money will follow!”
Today, my watchlist (using the daily timeframe) consists of the following:
Looking for Trading Entries
- GLD / XAUUSD
- NATGAS / UNG
- BTC
Monitoring of Current Trades
- USOIL / USO
- TLT / US10 Year Yield
- BAX
- LUV
- UAL
TLT / US10 YEAR YIELD TRADE – TAKE-PROFIT
Soon as the markets opened today, the US10 Year Yield’s price collapse, as anticipated, to the next support level.
This is had the affect of causing the TLT’s price to rally so hard that it hit my take-profit level immediately.
I was not happy about my take-profit being triggered, because I believe that the US 10 Year Yield is still likely to continue declining. Therefore, this would have been a great opportunity to run a percentage of my profits on TLT.
That said, this has been a great experience. It is the first time that I’ve traded TLT, and the first time that I have seen its aggressive price movement.
Learning Point
- When carrying out any trades where I expect there to be a price movement in a certain direction for at least a week, or so, I must deliberately not enter a take-profit order. This will ensure that my entire position is not triggered out of the market, enabling me to re-assess the situation everyday using the daily timeframe.
- Using a daily watchlist made the difference today. It enabled me to quickly analyse the markets in a very organised fashion as soon as they opened. I now appreciate that it is a similar type of watchlist that must form the basis of Gareth Soloway’s trading YouTube videos.
- Working through the watchlist required about 1-3 hours work. This confirms the point that trading is really about developing daily habits that inevitably result in an advanced understanding of the markets.
Next Action
- Wait for a possible pull-back of the TLT in order to obtain a great re-entry, as I anticipate that the US10 Year Yield will rebound first before declining further for the next week or so.
- Use a watchlist everyday to efficiently and effectively monitor outstanding trades, assess the markets, and complete your trading journal entries.
TLT / US10 YEAR YIELD TRADE – RE-ENTRY
As shown below, the US10 Year Yield appears to be rebounding. But in the long term, I expect the price to continue descending to the next support level (from 4.5% to around 4.3%).
In light of the above, I have started making my re-entry into TLT, starting with a very small 1/5 position (purple line number 1).
If the US10 Year Yield continues to rebound, then that will provide me with an opportunity to add additional 1/5 to my existing position at purple line number 4, 5, 6, and 7. Purple line number 2 is my actually stop-loss. And purple line number 3 is my anticipated take-profit level.
Learning Point
- I still require a lot of practice setting, and adjusting, my stop-loss and take-profit levels when entering 1/6 trading positions.
Next Action
- Learn more (book, online, or YouTube video) about how to best stage multiple entries when taking a trading position.
UAL TRADE
In light of the chart above, I took about 60% of my profits. This is because there is a bearish Kumo Cloud above the price action, which has now hit the Kijun.
And if it breaks through the current resistance level, the price action appears to require at least another week to have the possibility of hitting the next resistance level.
I also moved my stop-loss to a new position above my entry level (purple line number 1) to ensure that there is no longer the possibility of this being a losing trade (unless something unusual happens of course).
If the price action drops before my current entry level, then it will make strategic sense to just make a new entry, rather than hold on to my existing one unnecessarily putting my capital at risk.
BAX TRADE
As a result of being able to successfully trade this type of setup profitably, I have decided to enter another small entry position (1/10), as the price has pulled back to the previous resistance level.
Backtesting the chart seems to suggest that next week, or so, there is a good possibility that the price will advance to the next resistance level.
Therefore, in my opinion, it is worth entering a very small position. And learning from my past trades, I have decided to do so without placing a take-profit level because I’ll be reviewing this trade everyday.
NATGAS / UNG TRADE
Today, I enter a 1/10 Short position (purple line number 1) as I expect the price of natural gas to rise and reach its next resistance level on the daily timeframe.
If this happens, then it is likely to cause the price of its ETF (UNG) to also move towards its next major resistance level.
As a result, I placed my Short trade order price substantially below the next resistance level (70% or so) to increase the odds that the order is filled.
Let’s see how this plays out!
SPY TRADE
As shown by the chart above, the SPY would have been expected to pull-back (on the daily timeframe) when it hit the upper trend line. However, it blew past.
In light of the current negative economic climate, it can be considered that this is most likely a false breakout. If so, then it presents a great opportunity to enter a Short trade.
Therefore, I made a 1/6 entry at purple line number 1. Purple line number 2 is my stop-loss, and purple line number 3 is my considered take-profit level.
Let’s see how this one plays out!
ADA / BTC TRADE
As can be seen above, BTC looks set to decline in price in accordance with the Stochastic RSI on the daily timeframe.
As a result, I decided to take a Short position in Cardano (ADA) as this Altcoin mimics BTC’s price movement.
I made my first 1/5 Short trading position at purple line number 1 (0.3044).
Then, I made a second 1/5 Short trading position at the second purple line number 1 (0.3237).
Let’s see if the price continues to move up to my next order at the third purple line number 1 (0.3357), before its starts to decline. Or will it keep rising?
IVG (Involgize)