Trading Watchlist
1. BTC
It is simple. Meaning it does not matter what the price action of THETA is doing per se as it is all about the movement of BTC.
At the moment, BTC looks like it is going to decline to the bottom of its parallel channel. Therefore, do nothing until this is proven or disproven to be the case.
When BTC is in no man’s land, in other words, stay out of all trades.
This is what requires a high level of discipline which makes trading one of the most difficult professions to master.
Further to this point is the fact that I am currently expecting SOXX to pull back strongly at some point in the very near future:
Indirectly, this means that I am also expecting BTC to pull back as a direct result, which will further cause the Altcoins to decline also.
If SOXX’s, however, surges to the upside, then this should cause SOL to rally.
At the moment, I would say probabilities favour a move to the downside, so I should seriously consider exiting my SOL long trade at a small loss?
And I would expect THETA to see more downside also.
2. THETA
Go all in with a THETA short, as I am expecting the SOXX to start decling – causing BTC to decline also.
3. SOLUSDT
4. US10Y – analysed.
5. TLT – analysed.
6. QQQ – analysed.
7. SPY – analysed.
8. RUT – analysed.
9. NATGAS
Exit UNG immediately as NATGAS has broken its bullish price action structure on the 4 hour and daily timeframe:
10. UNG
Exit UNG long trade immediately.
11. GFI
As I am expecting SOXX to start falling soon, exit GFI position with the remaining full profits immediately.
12. BIIB
Exit BIIB immediately for the following reasons:
(1) the price action has failed to move as anticipated,
(2) now there is a greater risk of the price action hitting the lower part of the parallel channel, putting me at a greater loss, and
(3) SOXX is likely to start pulling back rather than rallying to the next resistance level, indicating that there will be increased selling pressure on more or less every stock.
13. AMD
Take full profits out of AMD trade as soon as possible, because I am expecting SOXX to start pulling back, as some point, rather than push to the next resistance level on the daily timeframe.
14. CMG
For the same reason as AMD, take full profits out of CMG because I am expecting SOXX, and in-turn RUT, to start pulling back before any possible price rally resumes.
In addition, another reason to take profits is that the price action of CMG did not move as expected when the market was clearly in a bullish structure.
15. DG – analysed.
16. BIDU – analysed.
17. AVGO – analysed.
18. UPS
Exit UPS long trade, as soon as possible, in light of the fact that the SOXX is likely to start declining in the very near future.
This is likely to provide me with an opportunity to re-enter UPS at my initial entry level whilst being able to take some profit of the stock today.
19. FDX
Scale into a FDX short as soon as possible.
20. PALL – analysed.
21. THETA
Close THETA short position, as soon as possible, for the following reasons:
(1) SOXX did not decline as expected,
(2) BTC did not decline as expected, and
(3) my THETA short entry was not at the major daily timeframe resistance level.
Learning Point
- Today, I re-appreciated the extreme importance of only entering trades when the price action is at major resistance or support levels, or at the top or bottom of a parallel channel.
This is because, by doing so, it increases the odds that the individual trade will withstand typical daily price fluctuations.
Whereas, by not doing so, it means that I will have to constantly monitor the position using lower timeframes to ensure that the trade does not quickly go against me.
. - High-probability trading seems to be, simply, all about first deciding what way the broader market is highly likely to go (assessing SOXX), then making trades in the relevant direction.
Once the broader market stalls or changes direction (SOXX), then it will be all about exiting all of the active trades, and submitting trades that follow the new trend.
Next Action
- Continue to monitor the price action of THETA today to see what it teaches you in regard to parallel channels, and the intermarket relationship with BTC.
- Continue to monitor the price action of SOL, today, to see what it teaches you concerning the intermarket relationship with BTC.
- Exit SOL long trade with a small loss immediately.
- Go all in with a short-term THETA short, using chart alerts and necessary stop-loss.
- Exit UNG long trade immediately.
- Exit GFI short position with the remaining full profits immediately.
- Exit BIIB long trade as soon as possible.
- Take full profits out of AMD long trade immediately.
- Take full profits out of CMG long trade as soon as possible.
- Take full profits out of UPS long trade as soon as possible.
- Scale into a FDX short as soon as possible.
- Close THETA short trade as soon as possible.
